Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula

The assessment of aridity conditions is a key factor for water management and the implementation mitigation adaptation policies in agroforestry systems. Towards this aim, three indices were computed Iberian Peninsula (IP): De Martonne Index (DMI), Pinna Combinative (PCI), Erinç Aridity (EAI). These first baseline period 1961–1990, using gridded observational data (E-OBS), subsequently, periods 2011–2040 (short range) 2041–2070 (medium range), an ensemble six regional climate model (RCM) experiments generated by EURO-CORDEX project. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) analyzed, intermediate anthropogenic radiative forcing scenario (RCP4.5) fossil-intensive emission (RCP8.5). Overall, disclose strengthening dry central southern Iberia until 2070, mainly under RCP8.5. Strong (weak) statistically significant correlations found between these total mean precipitation (mean temperature) along with projected decreasing (increasing) trends (temperature). prevalence years arid (above 70% both RCPs) are to have major impacts some regions, such as Portugal, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Comunidad de Madrid, Andalucía, Región Murcia, Valenciana, certain regions within Aragón province. increase intensity persistence broader half will exacerbate exposure vulnerability region change, while risk multi-level desertification should be thoroughly integrated into national planning.